submitted by harleydavidson789 to easymoneyforteens [link] [comments]
Welcome to the third and final part of this chapter.submitted by getmrmarket to Forex [link] [comments]
Thank you all for the 100s of comments and upvotes - maybe this post will take us above 1,000 for this topic!
Keep any feedback or questions coming in the replies below.
Before you read this note, please start with Part I and then Part II so it hangs together and makes sense.
Squeezes and other risksWe are going to cover three common risks that traders face: events; squeezes, asymmetric bets.
EventsEconomic releases can cause large short-term volatility. The most famous is Non Farm Payrolls, which is the most widely watched measure of US employment levels and affects the price of many instruments.On an NFP announcement currencies like EURUSD might jump (or drop) 100 pips no problem.
This is fine and there are trading strategies that one may employ around this but the key thing is to be aware of these releases.You can find economic calendars all over the internet - including on this site - and you need only check if there are any major releases each day or week.
For example, if you are trading off some intraday chart and scalping a few pips here and there it would be highly sensible to go into a known data release flat as it is pure coin-toss and not the reason for your trading. It only takes five minutes each day to plan for the day ahead so do not get caught out by this. Many retail traders get stopped out on such events when price volatility is at its peak.
SqueezesShort squeezes bring a lot of danger and perhaps some opportunity.
The story of VW and Porsche is the best short squeeze ever. Throughout these articles we've used FX examples wherever possible but in this one instance the concept (which is also highly relevant in FX) is best illustrated with an historical lesson from a different asset class.
A short squeeze is when a participant ends up in a short position they are forced to cover. Especially when the rest of the market knows that this participant can be bullied into stopping out at terrible levels, provided the market can briefly drive the price into their pain zone.
There's a reason for the car, don't worry
Hedge funds had been shorting VW stock. However the amount of VW stock available to buy in the open market was actually quite limited. The local government owned a chunk and Porsche itself had bought and locked away around 30%. Neither of these would sell to the hedge-funds so a good amount of the stock was un-buyable at any price.
If you sell or short a stock you must be prepared to buy it back to go flat at some point.
To cut a long story short, Porsche bought a lot of call options on VW stock. These options gave them the right to purchase VW stock from banks at slightly above market price.
Eventually the banks who had sold these options realised there was no VW stock to go out and buy since the German government wouldn’t sell its allocation and Porsche wouldn’t either. If Porsche called in the options the banks were in trouble.
Porsche called in the options which forced the shorts to buy stock - at whatever price they could get it.
The price squeezed higher as those that were short got massively squeezed and stopped out. For one brief moment in 2008, VW was the world’s most valuable company. Shorts were burned hard.
Porsche apparently made $11.5 billion on the trade. The BBC described Porsche as “a hedge fund with a carmaker attached.”
If this all seems exotic then know that the same thing happens in FX all the time. If everyone in the market is talking about a key level in EURUSD being 1.2050 then you can bet the market will try to push through 1.2050 just to take out any short stops at that level. Whether it then rallies higher or fails and trades back lower is a different matter entirely.
This brings us on to the matter of crowded trades. We will look at positioning in more detail in the next section. Crowded trades are dangerous for PNL. If everyone believes EURUSD is going down and has already sold EURUSD then you run the risk of a short squeeze.
For additional selling to take place you need a very good reason for people to add to their position whereas a move in the other direction could force mass buying to cover their shorts.
A trading mentor when I worked at the investment bank once advised me:
Always think about which move would cause the maximum people the maximum pain. That move is precisely what you should be watching out for at all times.
Asymmetric lossesAlso known as picking up pennies in front of a steamroller. This risk has caught out many a retail trader. Sometimes it is referred to as a "negative skew" strategy.
Ideally what you are looking for is asymmetric risk trade set-ups: that is where the downside is clearly defined and smaller than the upside. What you want to avoid is the opposite.
A famous example of this going wrong was the Swiss National Bank de-peg in 2012.
The Swiss National Bank had said they would defend the price of EURCHF so that it did not go below 1.2. Many people believed it could never go below 1.2 due to this. Many retail traders therefore opted for a strategy that some describe as ‘picking up pennies in front of a steam-roller’.
They would would buy EURCHF above the peg level and hope for a tiny rally of several pips before selling them back and keep doing this repeatedly. Often they were highly leveraged at 100:1 so that they could amplify the profit of the tiny 5-10 pip rally.
Then this happened.
Something that changed FX markets forever
The SNB suddenly did the unthinkable. They stopped defending the price. CHF jumped and so EURCHF (the number of CHF per 1 EUR) dropped to new lows very fast. Clearly, this trade had horrific risk : reward asymmetry: you risked 30% to make 0.05%.
Other strategies like naively selling options have the same result. You win a small amount of money each day and then spectacularly blow up at some point down the line.
Market positioningWe have talked about short squeezes. But how do you know what the market position is? And should you care?
Let’s start with the first. You should definitely care.
Let’s imagine the entire market is exceptionally long EURUSD and positioning reaches extreme levels. This makes EURUSD very vulnerable.
To keep the price going higher EURUSD needs to attract fresh buy orders. If everyone is already long and has no room to add, what can incentivise people to keep buying? The news flow might be good. They may believe EURUSD goes higher. But they have already bought and have their maximum position on.
On the flip side, if there’s an unexpected event and EURUSD gaps lower you will have the entire market trying to exit the position at the same time. Like a herd of cows running through a single doorway. Messy.
We are going to look at this in more detail in a later chapter, where we discuss ‘carry’ trades. For now this TRYJPY chart might provide some idea of what a rush to the exits of a crowded position looks like.
A carry trade position clear-out in action
Knowing if the market is currently at extreme levels of long or short can therefore be helpful.
The CFTC makes available a weekly report, which details the overall positions of speculative traders “Non Commercial Traders” in some of the major futures products. This includes futures tied to deliverable FX pairs such as EURUSD as well as products such as gold. The report is called “CFTC Commitments of Traders” ("COT").
This is a great benchmark. It is far more representative of the overall market than the proprietary ones offered by retail brokers as it covers a far larger cross-section of the institutional market.
Generally market participants will not pay a lot of attention to commercial hedgers, which are also detailed in the report. This data is worth tracking but these folks are simply hedging real-world transactions rather than speculating so their activity is far less revealing and far more noisy.
You can find the data online for free and download it directly here.
Raw format is kinda hard to work with
However, many websites will chart this for you free of charge and you may find it more convenient to look at it that way. Just google “CFTC positioning charts”.
But you can easily get visualisations
You can visually spot extreme positioning. It is extremely powerful.
Bear in mind the reports come out Friday afternoon US time and the report is a snapshot up to the prior Tuesday. That means it is a lagged report - by the time it is released it is a few days out of date. For longer term trades where you hold positions for weeks this is of course still pretty helpful information.
As well as the absolute level (is the speculative market net long or short) you can also use this to pick up on changes in positioning.
For example if bad news comes out how much does the net short increase? If good news comes out, the market may remain net short but how much did they buy back?
A lot of traders ask themselves “Does the market have this trade on?” The positioning data is a good method for answering this. It provides a good finger on the pulse of the wider market sentiment and activity.
For example you might say: “There was lots of noise about the good employment numbers in the US. However, there wasn’t actually a lot of position change on the back of it. Maybe everyone who wants to buy already has. What would happen now if bad news came out?”
In general traders will be wary of entering a crowded position because it will be hard to attract additional buyers or sellers and there could be an aggressive exit.
If you want to enter a trade that is showing extreme levels of positioning you must think carefully about this dynamic.
Bet correlationRetail traders often drastically underestimate how correlated their bets are.
Through bitter experience, I have learned that a mistake in position correlation is the root of some of the most serious problems in trading. If you have eight highly correlated positions, then you are really trading one position that is eight times as large.
Bruce Kovner of hedge fund, Caxton Associates
For example, if you are trading a bunch of pairs against the USD you will end up with a simply huge USD exposure. A single USD-trigger can ruin all your bets. Your ideal scenario — and it isn’t always possible — would be to have a highly diversified portfolio of bets that do not move in tandem.
Look at this chart. Inverted USD index (DXY) is green. AUDUSD is orange. EURUSD is blue.
Chart from TradingView
So the whole thing is just one big USD trade! If you are long AUDUSD, long EURUSD, and short DXY you have three anti USD bets that are all likely to work or fail together.
The more diversified your portfolio of bets are, the more risk you can take on each.
There’s a really good video, explaining the benefits of diversification from Ray Dalio.
A systematic fund with access to an investable universe of 10,000 instruments has more opportunity to make a better risk-adjusted return than a trader who only focuses on three symbols. Diversification really is the closest thing to a free lunch in finance.
But let’s be pragmatic and realistic. Human retail traders don’t have capacity to run even one hundred bets at a time. More realistic would be an average of 2-3 trades on simultaneously. So what can be done?
The key thing is to start thinking about a portfolio of bets and what each new trade offers to your existing portfolio of risk. Will it diversify or amplify a current exposure?
Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limitsOne common mistake is to get bored and restless and put on crap trades. This just means trades in which you have low conviction.
It is perfectly fine not to trade. If you feel like you do not understand the market at a particular point, simply choose not to trade.
Flat is a position.
Do not waste your bullets on rubbish trades. Only enter a trade when you have carefully considered it from all angles and feel good about the risk. This will make it far easier to hold onto the trade if it moves against you at any point. You actually believe in it.
Equally, you need to set monthly limits. A standard limit might be a 10% account balance stop per month. At that point you close all your positions immediately and stop trading till next month.
Be strict with yourself and walk away
Let’s assume you started the year with $100k and made 5% in January so enter Feb with $105k balance. Your stop is therefore 10% of $105k or $10.5k . If your account balance dips to $94.5k ($105k-$10.5k) then you stop yourself out and don’t resume trading till March the first.
Having monthly calendar breaks is nice for another reason. Say you made a load of money in January. You don’t want to start February feeling you are up 5% or it is too tempting to avoid trading all month and protect the existing win. Each month and each year should feel like a clean slate and an independent period.
Everyone has trading slumps. It is perfectly normal. It will definitely happen to you at some stage. The trick is to take a break and refocus. Conserve your capital by not trading a lot whilst you are on a losing streak. This period will be much harder for you emotionally and you’ll end up making suboptimal decisions. An enforced break will help you see the bigger picture.
Put in place a process before you start trading and then it’ll be easy to follow and will feel much less emotional. Remember: the market doesn’t care if you win or lose, it is nothing personal.
When your head has cooled and you feel calm you return the next month and begin the task of building back your account balance.
That's a wrap on risk managementThanks for taking time to read this three-part chapter on risk management. I hope you enjoyed it. Do comment in the replies if you have any questions or feedback.
Remember: the most important part of trading is not making money. It is not losing money. Always start with that principle. I hope these three notes have provided some food for thought on how you might approach risk management and are of practical use to you when trading. Avoiding mistakes is not a sexy tagline but it is an effective and reliable way to improve results.
Next up I will be writing about an exciting topic I think many traders should look at rather differently: news trading. Please follow on here to receive notifications and the broad outline is below.
News Trading Part I
Disclaimer:This content is not investment advice and you should not place any reliance on it. The views expressed are the author's own and should not be attributed to any other person, including their employer.
Today in the main session forex trading the CAD was strong on all pairs in this currency group. This drove strong price movements during the main trading session. Images of the live forex trading signals from The Forex Heatmap® and price chart movement for these pairs is shown below. The CAD/CHF moved higher on the H1 time frame. This pair is range bound so we consider this to be a short term buy. Traders should exit any short term buys on this pair. These live currency trading signals and trend based trading plans for 28 pairs can be found on our website at Forexearlywarning.com. CLick on the link for more information:submitted by forexalerts to u/forexalerts [link] [comments]
Access Part I here: https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/h0iwbu/part_i_my_10_minuteday_trading_strategy/submitted by ParallaxFX to Forex [link] [comments]
Welcome to Part II of this ongoing series. How many parts will there be? No idea. At least 4-5, I guess. I'd rather have this broken down into digestible chunks than just fire hose you with information.
Part I was really just a primer. If I'm using the whole baking a cake analogy, then in Part I we covered what kind of cake we're baking. I will not cover in this post where we look for entries and exits, that's coming next. Part II is going to cover what ingredients we need and why we need those ingredients in greater detail.
What Kind Of Strategy Is This Again?It's my 10 minutes per day, trading strategy. I think the beauty of this strategy is that it allows you to take a good number of trader per week without having to commit an inordinate amount of time to the screens. This is both a mean reversion and trend-continuation based strategy. It is dead simple to learn and apply. I'd expect a 10 year old to be able to make money with this.
The List Of Ingredients & Why We Use These Particular Ingredients
*I will have an image at the end of the post showing a textbook long and short setup*
Bollinger Bands: Bollinger Bands (BB) have a base line (standard is the 20SMA, which is also what we will use for this strategy) and two other trend lines (known as the upper Bollinger band [UBB] and lower Bollinger band [LBB]) plotted 2 standard deviations away from the 20SMA. The idea behind BB is deviously simple - the vast majority of price action, approx. 90%, takes place in between the two bands. In other words, when price trades off the UBB or LBB, you could consider prices to be overbought/oversold. However, just because something is OVERbought does NOT mean its run is OVER. Therefore we need additional tools to make sure we are using the BB as effectively as possible. TLDR: BB help contextualize where to look for our technical setups using this strategy. Finding the candle/bar pattern is not enough. We need to make sure the setup is in the 'right' part of the chart. We accomplish that using the BB.
Stochastic Oscillator: The Stochastic Oscillator (Stochs) is a secondary momentum indicator. Because it is an oscillator that means the signals it generates are range-bound between 0 and 100. There are tons of momentum indicators out there. Theoretically you could swap out the Stochs for RSI or MACD. My hunch is that you won't see a measurable statistical difference in performance if you do. So why Stochs? Because I like the fact you have the %K and %D lines (you can think of them as moving averages) and the fact that the %K and %D lines crossover is a helpful visual aid. Like any other momentum indicator, the Stochs will generate overbought and oversold signals. We use the Stochs to help back up what the BB are telling us. If price is trading at, or even broken out of, the UBB and Stochs are also veeeery overbought that can be potentially useful information. It doesn't mean we have a trade necessarily, but it is a helpful piece of data.
Fibonacci Retracement & Extension Tool: This tool is OPTIONAL. The only reason I use this tool for this strategy is to integrate a mechanistic means of entry and exit. In other words, we can use fibonacci levels to place limit orders for entry and profit taking, and a stop order to get us out for our pre-defined risk allocation to each particular trade. If you DON'T want to use the fibs, that is perfectly okay. It just means you will add a more discretionary layer to this strategy
Candlestick/Bar Patterns: There isn't a whole lot to say here. We look for ONE formation over, and over, and over again. An indecision bar (small body, doesn't close on its highs or lows) followed by the setup bar which is an outside bar or an engulfing bar. It doesn't particularly matter if the setup bar is an engulfing bar or outside bar. What matters is that for a long trade the setup bar makes a HIGHER HIGH and has a HIGHER CLOSE relative to the indecision bar. The opposite for a short trade setup. The bar formation is what ultimately serves as the trigger for placing orders to take a trade.
*MOVING ON* Now We Get Into The Setup Itself:There are 3 places where we look for trades using this strategy:
There will be other nuances I will cover in terms of how to make the strategy more effective in Part 3. For example, I will go into much more detail about how the shape of the BB can tell us a lot about whether a currency pair is likely to reverse or not. I will also cover how to gauge the strength of the setup candle and a few other tips and tricks.
Technical Nuances: You can overlay a lot of other traditional technical analysis on top of the above. For example you can look for short trades off the UBB in conjunction with a prior broken support level that you now expect to be working overhead resistance. If you want to go further and deeper, of course you can. Note: the above is about as far as I went when overlaying other kinds of analysis onto this strategy. I like to keep it simple, stupid.
TEXTBOOK LONG TRADE OFF LBB:
TEXTBOOK SHORT TRADE OFF UBB:
TRADE OFF MBB:
And that's a wrap for Part II.
Hi all,submitted by Blamoy to Forex [link] [comments]
I'm new here and new to forex.
I have a small amount of experience trading stocks and options but just think it's too volatile at the moment so want to transition to a casino where the deck isn't ENTIRELY stacked against me :P
I've just started babypips and tracking some currency pairs looking for what I think my entries would be.
A couple of noob questions:
So this pair is pegged between 7.75 - 7.85
If this pair is trading at the extreme end of the range isn't this a pretty one-sided trade? Obviously there is the risk that the peg could break or be changed etc but how likely is that?
Is it possible to watch pairs like this trading, wait to see some upward movement + increased volume and enter?
Losses would be limited to the lower bound with solid upside?
This seems like something every noob would think of so what am I missing?
2) Margin of Safety in a Forex Strategy
If I'm testing a strategy what % margin of safety should I try to build in before thinking the strategy might be worthwhile?
Let's say I have 2:1 risk:reward and expect to be right 50% of the time, this is probably not good enough, but what about if I was right 51% of the time? 55%? 60%? etc
I guess the question is, what percentage of statistical edge should I be looking to build?
|Game||Price||Launch Discount||Week Guess||Week actual||3 Month||3 Month/week||Followers||Early Access||Demo||Review Score|
|Pit of Doom||9.99||0||7||27||43||1.592592593||295||Y||N||0.8|
|Corspe Party: Book||14.99||0.1||32||40||79||1.975||1015||N||N||0.95|
|Call of Cthulhu||44.99||0||800||875||1595||1.822857143||26600||N||N||0.74|
|The Quiet Man||14.99||0.1||120||207||296||1.429951691||5596||N||N||0.31|
|The Other Half||7.99||0||2||3||27||9||91||N||Y||0.86|
|Yet Another Tower Defense||1.99||0.4||20||22||38||1.727272727||396||N||N||0.65|
|Swords and Soldiers 2||14.99||0.1||65||36||63||1.75||1742||N||N||0.84|
|Rage in Peace||12.99||0.1||15||10||42||4.2||377||N||N||0.85|
|One Hour One Life||19.99||0||12||153||708||4.62745098||573||N||N||0.81|
|Of Gods and Men||7.99||0.4||3||10||18||1.8||111||N||Y|
|Welcome to Princeland||4.99||0.1||1||15||55||3.666666667||30||N||N||0.85|
|Zero Caliber VR||24.99||0.1||100||169||420||2.485207101||5569||Y||N||0.73|
|Evil Bank Manager||11.99||0.1||106||460||4.339622642||8147||Y||N||0.78|
|Light Fairytale Ep 1||9.99||0.1||80||23||54||2.347826087||4694||Y||N||0.89|
|The Last Sphinx||2.99||0.1||0||0||1||0||17||N||N|
|Bad Dream: Fever||9.99||0.2||30||78||134||1.717948718||907||N||N||0.72|
|Dark Fantasy: Jigsaw||2.99||0.2||1||9||36||4||32||N||N||0.91|
|Farming Simulator 19||34.99||0||1500||3895||5759||1.478562259||37478||N||N||0.76|
|Don't Forget Our Esports Dream||14.99||0.13||3||16||22||1.375||150||N||N||1|
|Space Toads Mayhem||3.99||0.15||1||2||3||1.5||18||N||N|
|Evidence of Life||4.99||0||0||2||4||2||10||N||N|
|Quiet as a Stone||9.99||0.1||1||1||4||4||42||N||N|
|Scraper: First Strike||29.99||0||3||3||15||5||69||N||N|
|Experiment Gone Rogue||16.99||0||1||1||5||5||27||Y||N|
|Age of Civilizations II||4.99||0||600||1109||2733||2.464382326||18568||N||N||0.82|
|Mosaics Galore. Challenging Journey||4.99||0.2||1||1||8||8||14||N||N|
|Dark Siders III||59.99||0||2400||1721||2708||1.573503777||85498||N||N||0.67|
|R-Type Dimensions Ex||14.99||0.2||10||48||64||1.333333333||278||N||N||0.92|
|Pro Fishing Simulator||39.99||0.15||24||20||19||0.95||609||N||N||0.22|
|Epic Battle Fantasy 5||14.99||0||300||395||896||2.26835443||4236||N||N||0.97|
|Above the Fold||13.99||0.15||5||2||6||3||65||Y||N|
|The Seven Chambers||12.99||0.3||3||0||0||#DIV/0!||55||N||N|
|Just Cause 4||59.99||0||2400||2083||3500||1.680268843||50000||N||N||0.34|
|Grapple Force Rena||14.99||0||11||12||29||2.416666667||321||N||Y|
|Aeon of Sands||19.99||0.1||20||12||25||2.083333333||320||N||N|
|Dr. Cares - Family Practice||12.99||0.25||6||3||8||2.666666667||39||N||N|
|Fear the Night||14.99||0.25||25||201||440||2.189054726||835||Y||N||0.65|
|Exiled to the Void||7.99||0.3||9||4||11||2.75||84||Y||N|
As all major central banks conduct almost similar easing policy, the Forex pairs can fluctuate within certain levels for a long period. That is actually a good news for range-bound traders, as channels are expected to remain quite strong.ECB
IT and Internet communications companies will likely gain much more attention during the year.Google, Nvidia, Disney, Apple, and many more around the IT and Internet sectors have the full potential to spearhead the S&P in 2020 and further on.
Goldman Sachs economists said Sunday that they see the Fed cutting rates by 50 basis points by its March meeting or sooner, and probably 100 basis points this year, a forecast about in consensus with current market pricing.
Traders in the fed funds futures market are indicating about a 9% probability that the fed funds rate, which serves as benchmark for other very short-term rates, will fall to a range of zero to 25 basis points by December, according to the CME's FedWatch tracker.
"One of the recurring themes in optimal monetary policy near the zero lower bound is that when growth risks occur with policy rates within the neighborhood of zero, then the central bank should act early and aggressively," JPMorgan's chief U.S. economist, Michael Feroli, said in a note.
New York Fed President John Williams caused a stir in July 2019 when he noted the same research that pointed to cutting rates dramatically rather than incrementally when they are already low.
Former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh told CNBC on Friday that the Fed, BOJ, European Central Bank, Bank of England and others should act in concert with a cut on the order of 50 basis points.
The fed funds rate is trading in a range between 1.5% and 1.75%. That's higher than any U.S. Treasury bill, note or bond, the first time that's happened since 2008, according to FOREX.com.
submitted by JalelTounsi to ethfinance [link] [comments]
1. BreakoutBreakout strategies center around when the price clears a specified level on your chart, with increased volume. The breakout trader enters into a long position after the asset or security breaks above resistance. Alternatively, you enter a short position once the stock breaks below support.
After an asset or security trades beyond the specified price barrier, volatility usually increases and prices will often trend in the direction of the breakout.
You need to find the right instrument to trade. When doing this bear in mind the asset’s support and resistance levels. The more frequently the price has hit these points, the more validated and important they become.
Entry PointsThis part is nice and straightforward. Prices set to close and above resistance levels require a bearish position. Prices set to close and below a support level need a bullish position.
Plan your exitsUse the asset’s recent performance to establish a reasonable price target. Using chart patterns will make this process even more accurate. You can calculate the average recent price swings to create a target. If the average price swing has been 3 points over the last several price swings, this would be a sensible target. Once you’ve reached that goal you can exit the trade and enjoy the profit.
2. ScalpingOne of the most popular strategies is scalping. It’s particularly popular in the forex market, and it looks to capitalise on minute price changes. The driving force is quantity. You will look to sell as soon as the trade becomes profitable. This is a fast-paced and exciting way to trade, but it can be risky. You need a high trading probability to even out the low risk vs reward ratio.
Be on the lookout for volatile instruments, attractive liquidity and be hot on timing. You can’t wait for the market, you need to close losing trades as soon as possible.
3. MomentumPopular amongst trading strategies for beginners, this strategy revolves around acting on news sources and identifying substantial trending moves with the support of high volume. There is always at least one stock that moves around 20-30% each day, so there’s ample opportunity. You simply hold onto your position until you see signs of reversal and then get out.
Alternatively, you can fade the price drop. This way round your price target is as soon as volume starts to diminish.
This strategy is simple and effective if used correctly. However, you must ensure you’re aware of upcoming news and earnings announcements. Just a few seconds on each trade will make all the difference to your end of day profits.
4. ReversalAlthough hotly debated and potentially dangerous when used by beginners, reverse trading is used all over the world. It’s also known as trend trading, pull back trending and a mean reversion strategy.
This strategy defies basic logic as you aim to trade against the trend. You need to be able to accurately identify possible pullbacks, plus predict their strength. To do this effectively you need in-depth market knowledge and experience.
The ‘daily pivot’ strategy is considered a unique case of reverse trading, as it centers on buying and selling the daily low and high pullbacks/reverse.
5. Using Pivot PointsA day trading pivot point strategy can be fantastic for identifying and acting on critical support and/or resistance levels. It is particularly useful in the forex market. In addition, it can be used by range-bound traders to identify points of entry, while trend and breakout traders can use pivot points to locate key levels that need to break for a move to count as a breakout.
Calculating Pivot PointsA pivot point is defined as a point of rotation. You use the prices of the previous day’s high and low, plus the closing price of a security to calculate the pivot point.
Note that if you calculate a pivot point using price information from a relatively short time frame, accuracy is often reduced.
So, how do you calculate a pivot point?
ApplicationWhen applied to the FX market, for example, you will find the trading range for the session often takes place between the pivot point and the first support and resistance levels. This is because a high number of traders play this range.
It’s also worth noting, this is one of the systems & methods that can be applied to indexes too. For example, it can help form an effective S&P day trading strategy
6. Moving Average CrossoverYou will need three moving average lines:
So, You’ll open a position when the moving average line crosses in one direction and you’ll close the position when it crosses back the opposite way.
How can you establish there’s definitely a trend? You know the trend is on if the price bar stays above or below the 100-period line.
the source : https://www.daytrading.com/strategies
Today in the main session forex trading the GBP was strong on all pairs in this currency group. This drove strong price movements during the main trading session. Images of the live forex trading signals from The Forex Heatmap® and price chart movement for these pairs is shown below. The GBP/AUD and GBP/NZD both moved higher on the H1 time frame. These two pairs are range bound on the H1 time frame resistance levels. So we consider these to short term/intraday trades. We would exit any short term buys based on GBP strength. These live currency trading signals and trend based trading plans for 28 pairs can be found on our website at Forexearlywarning.com.submitted by forexalerts to u/forexalerts [link] [comments]
#GBPAUD #GBPNZD #forexsignals #forextrading #trading #daytrading #forexalerts #currencytrading #forex British Pound GBP/AUD GBP/NZD
wave-c = wave-a * 0.618 wave-d = wave-b * 0.786 wave-e = wave-c * 0.786https://i.imgur.com/Bm4Nx7a.png
@5920: Fibonacci 0.618% of wave-d low projected from wave-e high. @5220: Fibonacci 0.786% of wave-d low projected from wave-e high. @4327: Fibonacci 0.100% of wave-d low projected from wave-e high. @4200: Fibonacci 78.6% decline of entire Bitcoin market.Any of the aforementioned approx price levels based on Fibonacci projections are potential targets of where the 2018 bear market may conclude.
Follow Golden Rules and Consistently Win Tradessubmitted by alfafinancials5 to u/alfafinancials5 [link] [comments]
Habits are something that is very difficult to change, so why not cultivate some good habits. For a Trader one such habit should be of winning trades. But certainly to achieve that some techniques or golden rules must be practiced wholeheartedly. Systematic Planning and following that is one of the basic rules a trader must follow. A combination of all such techniques when applied together forms the mantra that leads you to the path of success.
The paramount techniques that every plan must have:
Examine your skills
Trade only when you are ready to trade. Know your skills and plan accordingly, because when you follow the tricks what other traders do, sometimes it might not work. So realizing your skills and planning according to it would earn you profit.
Be prepared consciously
For a Trader, the mental strength is an important factor, be it his/her daily life or in forex trading. A trader should not get affected by any mental or physical trauma that will interrupt the way to his/her success. A trader must set a goal and repeat it like an incantation to stay away from any distractions. To be in a place where distractions are bound, a trader must learn to dodge.
Set the Risk levels
The reason a trader must have his/her risk level in a safer zone is because there is a chance that your portfolio will be on risk. The range can be set anywhere around 1% to 5%.
Keep your intentions high
There is a saying "What you think, you become". So think Big and set your goals higher while keeping your head on your neck and setting real & achievable targets and also focusing on the risk to reward ratios. When you realize the profit is much greater than the risk, it is worth taking the risk. Carry on with the same approach with some high goal and believe that you can achieve it with your skill in trading.
Practice in private.
Practice makes man perfect but definitely, there is a difference between bravery and stupidity. You can’t afford to invest your hard earned money for a gamble in trading without a deep study of the things going around. Have an eye on what is happening around the world before stepping into the market. Get to know whether the overseas market is moving up or down so it will be useful for you to plan accordingly.
No matter which trading system and program you work on, the only thing you need to make sure is that you tag or mark the major and minor support and resistance levels. Setting notifications or alarms for your entry and exit signals would be a great idea and to safeguard this you need to make necessary arrangements to easily identify these signals when received, using a visual or audible method.
A plan to exit
Traders passionately concentrate on how to enter a market, but they don’t concentrate on when and where to exit, which is equally important as the entry level. Better make a proper plan for the exit before entering a trade. Traders don’t sell off their positions if the market is going against them as they don’t prefer to be in the stage of loss. A trader must be very confident and he /she should get over the loss and move forward. More comparingly, traders tend to lose more than winning, in the field of trading. So by managing the money, traders do make profits at the end.
Maintaining the data for the trades your won & loss is another good practice a trader must follow. Note down the entry & exit points you choose, open & closed positions of the market at that time, the targets that you had set for the support & resistance levels, and even the Overseas market updates. Equally important is the data & conditions that landed you in a loss will enable you to understand the factors that went against you and those which can be avoided and taken care in the future. Keeping a track of all your trading strategies will make you a successful trader.
Taking into consideration all of the above points if followed sincerely will lead your way towards a successful trading career. Nobody can guarantee that every trade will be profitable, it is your efforts and skills in studying the market along with your presence of mind that will lead your way. No matter what happens you should not be driven by your emotions while trading. Trading on paper and real money trading are two different things but yes surely practicing more will give you some extra confidence to take a brave step as you have already tested it on paper.
We Alfa Financials one of the regulated forex brokers in UAE offers access to many forex trading pairs through your trading account.
submitted by Bitex1 to u/Bitex1 [link] [comments]
The use of cryptocurrency is spreading fast among business communities around the world. One niche with great potential for cryptocurrency use is the market of traditional tradable assets of foreign currencies, shares, bonds, interest rates and minerals.
As soon as the right regulations on blockchain are put in place, traders will be able to use cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin to trade assets. The doors will be wide open for institutional investors, international manufacturers and merchants to start using cryptocurrencies for transactions. Paying for delivered products with cryptocurrencies will greatly reduce transaction expenses since the system is fast, secure and free of additional fees. These qualities will enable buyers and sellers in these markets to guard against risk and save a little cash.
You can imagine the asset demand the use of cryptocurrency in the stock markets would create. The volume of speculation and hedging operations of traders will grow significantly. Combined with high-frequency robots and trading algorithms that help perform transactions faster and more accurately, the market volumes and the income of trading platforms is bound to skyrocket.
As per the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) over the counter derivatives were traded for a whopping $632.5 trillion in 2012. In the same year, traditional exchange markets garnered $52.5 trillion. When the two are compared, the former made 92% of the global derivative market while the latter only made 8%.
According to WTO,
· Global commodity trade made: $18.255 trillion in 2011, $18.323 trillion in 2012,
· Service trade made: $4.2433 trillion in 2011 and $4.4232 trillion in 2012
These values are still way behind the derivative market trade volumes.
What are the challenges?
Delving into the asset markets with cryptocurrencies as a means of trade comes with a few challenges. For one, it is difficult for private persons with small investments to access these markets. And even if you were a big corporation, there is currently no opportunity to trade with exchange asset derivative instruments that are expressed in cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin.)
How Traditional Stock exchanges work
Trading is carried out with the use of fiat currencies and is performed through brokers. The brokers work for huge corporations hence the high expenses and large volumes of transactions. The volume of one trade at exchange markets with the real delivery of currency on the second working day could make up to about $5 million.
On the other hand, the cost of one conversion transaction makes from $60 to $300. On top of these costs, a trader could spend up to $6000 a month for interbank information and trading terminal. This is obviously not conducive for small-scale traders.
In order to curb the high costs of trade, two American stock exchanges, CBOE and CME introduced trade with futures for BTC at the end of 2017. The only problem is that they impose high requirements on the lot size. Another challenge is that futures at these stock exchanges are calculated and not delivered hence trade participants cannot actually buy BTC.
Curbstone brokers or otherwise known as ‘bucket shops’ are forex brokers who offer clients small transactions without registering them with the interbank market. The brokers act as an opposite side in a transaction which means that the client's profit turns out to be the broker’s loss, and the client's loss - into broker's proﬁt. This conflict of interest has resulted in brokers manipulating charts to make transactions of their clients unprofitable. Bucket shops do not publish reports on transactions, which makes activities of such brokers non-transparent.
Of late, many of them have begun offering trade with cryptocurrencies. It makes trading flexible but not ethical and trustworthy as it is with the traditional stock exchanges.
As a matter of fact, this lack of trust in curbstone brokership has led to their ban in some countries where they are considered fraudulent.
So what is the solution?
Cryptocurrencies have enabled ordinary people and investors to save and grow their money discreetly away from unfair control or seizure by state regulatory bodies. The use of cryptocurrency in the blockchain network is a powerful expression of freedom that should be spread across all trading platforms.
In this regard, we believe in the development of future exchange asset derivative instruments that make use of the available cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and other high-liquid cryptocurrencies.
This will make bull or bear traditional assets widely accessible to professionals and beginning traders. More importantly, there will be lower transaction fees about 0.05% when compared to spot exchanges (Bitﬁnex, Binance, Kraken, and Poloniex) that charge in the range of 0.1 to 2%.
BlTEX.ONE is one such innovative trading platform that allows for international trading with assets expressed in cryptocurrencies with a transparent transaction system for the customers. It also has anti-fraud prevention measures to guard against chart manipulations.
The platform allows traders to increase their Bitcoins by speculating on the changes in the price of accessible traditional exchange assets such as the dollar, the euro, gold, oil, beans, cocoa or share indexes.
Our greatest mission is to bring the usage of blockchain and cryptocurrencies into the trading arena. We believe that the creation and functioning of the BITEX.ONE platform for trading with futures on traditional assets would achieve this.
The growing popularity of cryptocurrencies in many developing countries will soon provide them with a legitimate status through effective legislation. When this plane takes off, we want to be ready with an elaborate platform for institutional investors to use cryptocurrencies as investment instruments. Working with futures on traditional assets will create an opportunity for investors to make substantial proﬁt for their customers.
Abstractsubmitted by FmzQuant to u/FmzQuant [link] [comments]
The Dual Thrust trading algorithm is a famous strategy developed by Michael Chalek. It has been commonly used in futures, forex and equity markets. The idea of Dual Thrust is similar to a typical breakout system, however dual thrust uses the historical price to construct update the look back period - theoretically making it more stable in any given period. www.fmz.com
In this tutorial we give an instruction details to the strategy and show how to implement this algorithm on FMZ. After pulling in the historical price of the chosen trading pairs, the range is calculated based on the close, high and low over the most recent N-days. A position is opened when the market moves a certain range from the opening price. We tested the strategy on individual trading pairs under two market states a trending market and range bound market. The results suggest this momentum trading system works better in trending market but will trigger some fake buy and sell signals in much more volatile market. Under the range bound market, we can adjust the parameters to get better return. As a comparison of individual trading pairs, we also implemented the strategy on BTC/USDT. The result suggested that the strategy beat the market.
Its logical prototype is one of the more common Day trading strategies. The opening range breakout strategy is based on today's opening price plus or minus a certain percentage of yesterday's amplitude to determine the upper and lower rails. When the price breaks through the upper track, it will buy long, and when it breaks the lower track, it will sell short.
The basic principle of this strategy www.fmz.com
The long signal is calculated by
. The short signal is calculated by
where K1 and K2 are the parameters. When K1 is greater than K2, it is much easier to trigger the long signal and vice versa. For demonstration, here we choose K1 = K2 = 0.5. In live trading, we can still use historical data to optimize those parameters or adjust the parameters according to the market trend. K1 should be small than k2 if you are bullish on the market and k1 should be much bigger if you are bearish on the market.
This system is a reversal system, so if the investor holds a short position when the price breaks the cap line, the short margin should be liquidated first before opening a long position. If the investor holds a long position when the price breaks the floor line, the long margin should be liquidated first before opening a new short position.
Dual Thrust has made improvements in this opening range breakthrough strategy: www.fmz.com
Therefore, when using this strategy, on the one hand, you can refer to the optimal parameters of historical data testing. On the other hand, you can start to adjust K1 and K2 in stages according to your own judgment of the post-trend or from other major cycle technical indicators.
This is a typical trading way of waiting for signals, entering the market, arbitrage, and leaving the market, but the effect is outstanding. www.fmz.com
https://preview.redd.it/8uc3berff2g11.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=56b0505f79db9ada8014c84d345cd0c0025f14f5submitted by PrimeTradeAI to PrimeTradeAI [link] [comments]
The Best Six Crypto Trading Strategies Revealed
Cryptocurrency also called digital currency, virtual currency or alternate currency is emerging as the future of money. The crypto world provides an enormous return on investment for traders to flourish and prosper. Due to the decentralized control and the blockchain technology, people find crypto trading to be more transparent as it doesn’t require a central authority.
On the other hand, the crypto market is very sensitive and security breaches can happen at fraction of a second. There are many hacks that happened in the crypto market that shook the world. Bithumb was hacked at June 2018 and $30 million coins were stolen. These incidents are a mounting evidence which proves how violative is the cryptocurrency market. This article will unveil the top trading strategies that can be used for both stock market and cryptocurrency trading.
Scalping is the act of attaining huge profits on minor changes in the asset(coin). Traders who implement this strategy is called a “scalper”. Here the scalpers believe that small moves in the stock price can gain huge profits. The idea is to buy or sell a number of assets at the holding time and sell them higher or lower for a profit. This scalping strategy is perfect for intraday trading.
Technical analysis has to be done before scalping and a scalper spends 8-10 hours in the forex market. A scalper should be proactive to take advantage of the fluctuations in the market. Scalping is more trending in the cryptocurrency market due to the fluctuations in the price of the tokens. Scalping if done statistically keeping in mind of avoiding late entries, overtrading and late exists, scalpers will be able to reap the desired profit in the cryptocurrency trading.
Day trading is the most lucrative strategy for people in both the stock and crypto market. This trading is quite similar to the scalping method. The difference is in scalping there are hundreds of transactions done whereas in day trading only very few transactions are done. To be precise, day trading is buying or selling of assets on the same day, to make the most of the market fluctuations. Traders make the most from the minute changes of the price of the asset/coin.
A day trader can make double the profit which means he or she can gain more money from the original money they have spend. Here the holding time is eliminated as the traders hold their assets to a maximum of 2 hours per day. This day trading strategy for cryptocurrency would work only if the market is stable.
Range-bound trading is the trading capitalizing on stocks in price channels. This trading is widely used by forex traders and other traders. The concept behind the range-bound trading is identifying the support and resistance areas in order to connect reaction highs and lows with a horizontal trendline.
The reliability of the trendlines depends on the number of times the price has reacted to it. The method is traders repeatedly buy at the support trendline and sell at the resistance trendline until the security breaks out from a price channel. In range-bound trading, it is imperative for the traders to watch for potential breakouts and breakdowns.
Swing trading is similar to the day trading. In day trading the holding time of an asset is a maximum couple of hours a day whereas in swing trade the holding time can extend up to a week or couple of weeks. This type of trading involves in identifying the trends lows, highs and calculating the risk. Before jumping into the swing trading a lot of market analysis has to be done by the trader. A sound technical analysis is needed than day trading. Using this strategy in cryptocurrency is based on the estimation of the trend line and when it is going swing high.
Position trading is also called as HOLDing, where an investor holds on his assets through its highs and lows without the intention to sell it. The concept of HOlDing is just buying the coins and put them in your wallet. The investors do not involve in any transactions from months to years and only sells his coins with his own intention or find a threat to his asset. A position trader is neither worried about the market fluctuations nor bothers of the daily, monthly news of the crypto market. This position trading is implemented once or twice a year which makes the trader a long-term investor.
Arbitrage is the simplest method of trading. The concept behind this trading is buying a coin from an exchange where the price is lower and selling it in another exchange where the price is relatively high for that particular coin. The price difference marks the profit gain for the trader. This kind of trading is widely used in the crypto market as it doesn’t require any technical knowledge to perform it. Arbitrage trading can be automated and can be performed by a bot. This trading may present a lucrative window of opportunity to generate passive income for the newbies entering the cryptomarket.
As the name suggests, range trading is a strategy or a technique used to trade a range-bound market. Let’s now give a comprehensive definition of what is a trading range? A trading range takes place when a financial instrument (stocks, indices, bonds, commodities, Forex currencies or cryptocurrencies) oscillates between two upwards and downwards boundaries for a period of time. Range-bound Forex trading (General guidelines) #1: We’ll be discussing methods and ideas for detecting and trading during range-bound markets. These methods are not going to shield you completely from ever changing market weather, but will help you to anticipate and make “weather forecasts” with additional accuracy. Range-bound trading is a trading strategy that identifies stocks trading in channels. By finding major support and resistance levels with technical analysis , a trend trader buys stocks at the ... Gold Forecast: Range Bound Trading. Christopher Lewis on October 19, 2020 Latest News. AUD/USD Forex Signal: Bullish Consolidation Above 0.7248 . 12 hours ago Adam Lemon Technical Analysis BTC/USD Forex Signal: Still Bullish. 12 hours ago Adam Lemon Technical Analysis GBP/USD Forex Signal: Another New 2-Month High. 13 hours ago Adam Lemon Technical Analysis EUR/USD Forex Signal: Bearish Head ... Bonus Tip: The best pairs for trading range-bound strategies are currency crosses. By crosses, we mean those pairs that do not include the USD as one of the currencies in the pair. One of the most well-known currency pair for trading ranges is the EUR/CHF. The similar growth rates shared by the European Union and Switzerland pretty much keep the exchange rate of the EUR/CHF stable. Another ... How to Trade in Range-Bound Forex Markets. The main aim of range-bound trading is based on a tendency of price to reverse back to its equilibrium point. This is a straightforward theory that has been implemented in the forex market over the decades. It is based on the relation between the current price of a particular part and the average price. Pros and Cons of Trading Range Bound Forex Pairs. Forex price ranges can be tricky to trade; there are some advantages and disadvantages in trading ranges. Below we will discuss some pros and cons of the Range Bound currency trading. Pros for Trading Ranges. Clearly Stated Levels For Trading Inner Swings – When you have a range on the chart, you have a clearly stated high and low of a ...
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Momentum Monday - Trading In A Range bound Market Ivanhoff. Loading... Unsubscribe from Ivanhoff? ... MUST WATCH: 1 Hour Forex Charts Using Mondays Range - Duration: 24:30. Stacey Burke Trading ... #DailyPipTalk #LondonBreakoutTrading #ForexTradingTips Forex Trading With Average Daily Range And Median Price Levels We can use the average daily range and ... Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube. इस strategy से FOREX शेयर मार्केट और क्रिप्टो में रोज़ आसानी से पैसा कमाओ Download the #OctaFX #Forex ... Strategies for Range Trading Markets. http://www.financial-spread-betting.com/course/technical-analysis.html PLEASE LIKE AND SHARE THIS VIDEO SO WE CAN DO MO... #forex #forexlifestyle #forextrader Want to join my VIP group? Get my signals, education, and live chat! Link to join: https://tradernickfx.com/ // SOCIAL FR... Subscribe to Signal Service https://zurl.co/kTq7 . #usdjpy #forex #trading #investment #tradingstrategy #tradesignal #algotrading #tradesystem This Market Geeks video describes basic factors to help traders determine if markets are trending or are range bound (choppy). Simple visual analysis as well as basic technical indicators are ...